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Wednesday's Stats

High: 51.88
Low: 51.04
Close: 51.36

Daily Pivot Points

R2: 52.26
R1: 51.83
PP: 51.42
S1: 50.99
S2: 50.58

Major Daily Events Thursday

OPEC Meeting
Fed Speak

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The Kobeissi Letter - Weekly Oil Commentary 5/22/2017

WTI Crude soars back above $50

WTI crude marked a 1.95% gain for the week as after OPEC reiterated further cuts going into the back half of 2017. WTI crude closed at $50.33 on Friday after falling below $44 two weeks ago. U.S. crude oil inventories marked a draw of 1.7 million barrels while a 2.3 million barrel draw was expected. Gasoline inventories fell by 413,000 barrels with expectations of a 731,000 barrel draw. Inventories in past weeks have shown consecutive draws despite the rising rig count that we have been experiencing for nearly six months.Rig count also rose by 8 to 720 total operating rigs in the United States which is 27th rise over the last 28 weeks. The CFTC also reported that long positions in WTI crude rose by only 1,000 to 329,000 which is another 2017 low. We continue to assert the fact that the recent rally has been almost 100% short covering and that can be deadly to bulls in this market. We have not seen buying of long contracts to support this climb crude oil will certainly not hold these levels unless more long contracts are purchased. It is widely expected that OPEC will cut 1.8 million barrels of crude oil production per day until March of 2018. However, at TKL, we still do not see how this presents a bullish picture for the supply and demand market as United States and other non-OPEC nations’ oil production is rising quickly to compensate for these OPEC cuts. The inventory numbers will remain a key focus here at TKL. We do expect the commodity to fail here and fall to $44/ barrel. We do not see WTI crude rising above its 200 day small moving average at $51.96 and if it approaches that point we shall add more shorts to our existing short positions. OPEC will continue to release “news” to push the commodity higher, but it will come down to the supply and demand pictures at the end of the day which is what we encourage our subscribers to consider. We certainly are not buying this rally and do we believe crude oil presents an excellent shorting opportunity at this level.

@HeidsterTrades Daily Commentary - 5/25/2017

Good Morning, oil prices are down overnight. They were up for a while, then Al Faliih said that there is no need for deeper cuts at the OPEC meeting and price crashed from there. Current cuts are alaready priced into the market. Market rumors were looking for extended cuts to be deeper than expected in a last ditch effort to get prices higher. Maybe these countries took notice, that this tactic is not supportive of higher prices over the longer term and are going to be working other ways to get prices higher. My news feed is a little messed up today, not sure how that will go, other than that everyone seems to be on board with extension of current cuts for nine more months with the same exemptions as before, as far as I could tell. Thisis also subject to change, since the meeting is not yet over. Targets to the upside are; 51.50, 51.84, 52.00 and 52.31. To the downside; 50.98, 50.67, 50.30 and 49.76. All the best!!!!

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