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The Kobeissi Letter - Weekly Oil Commentary 2/6/2017
Crude oil trades in TKL’s predicted range
WTI crude marked a weekly decline of 0.96% United States crude oil inventories continued to rise. WTI crude continues to trade in the 50-55 range as investors are uncertain about the supply and demand picture. Last week, we recommended our subscribers to trade this range until any significant fundamental change happens and we stick by that statement. U.S. crude oil inventories marked another massive build of 9.5 million barrels from the Department of Energy while a 3.5 million barrel build was expected. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.8 million barrels confirming last week’s draw as a fluke. Our prediction of a gasoline glut still remains a concern in the demand picture. We have seen crude oil rise on these bearish reports for the last five weeks which supports our range bound hypothesis. We still do not see how these numbers are presenting any buying opportunity whatsoever and this proves that this trade is purely sentiment driven. Rig count rose by 6 to 597 total operating rigs in the United States which is 15th rise over the last 16 weeks. The CFTC also reported that long positions in WTI crude have marked another all time high and now sit at 508,000. Crude oil has been range bound between 50 and 55 for over two months now and we believe this is a tradable range. The reasoning for this is that WTI crude cannot rise above $55 without shale producers overpumping and it cannot fall below 50 due to the bullish OPEC production cuts. Trading the $50-$55 range on WTI crude will be highly profitable as we anticipate the trend to continue.
@HeidsterTrades Daily Commentary - 2/27/2017
Good morning oil prices are up overnight. It is looking like people are confident again in being long oil here. Over night it looks like data came out that Lybia has cut production, China oil production is down and India oil demand is set to go through the roof. Pretty quiet today. Targets to the upside form 54.36 are; 54.73, 54.84, 54.95 and 55.29. To the downside I have; 54.23, 54.09, 53.92, 53.66 and 53.50. Have a great day!